The UP Overkill Caution

Sometimes, the most adverse situations in life spark the most desperate act of daring. In the movie “Ransom” Mel Gibson’s son is kidnapped. Two attempts at paying ransom fail. In a chilling twist, Gibson decides that he will not pay the ransom any more. Instead, he doubles the ransom amount to a bounty on the kidnapper’s head (Video: 1.51 mins):

Gibson promises the kidnapper he will never see one dollar of the money. Kidnappers and blackmailers are among the worst criminals on earth because they hold the lives of others as a negotiating tool and in danger. The gang of alleged farmers held the whole NCR to ransom and blackmailed the GOI for over a year. Lacking the courage to nip the criminals in the bud, PM Narendra Modi just folded up. Not only did he withdraw the farm laws without any pre-conditions but he also withdrew all criminal cases for the violence and damage caused. Stubble burning cases and laws were also dropped.

And Modi did all this on “Guru Purab” as he called it on November 19. As if Sikhs are the only farmers in this land. But this action wasn’t for Punjab votes as many argue. This cowardice is for UP votes. After the severe Bengal slap, Modi and BJP are damn scared about losing elections. They are reduced from 21 states around 2017-18 to about a dozen currently. Of course, UP must be won at all costs and it is the lifeline to LS2024 and a lot of electoral-pride is also at stake. Modi has been hectic in his activity in UP with unending project launches and the Kashi Corridor opening and a dip in the Ganga. I guess it was time for him to become a Hindu for a few months:

If that wasn’t enough, Modi has announced over 1 lakh crores worth of projects in UP and a few in Uttarakhand and Himachal. All 3 states are heavily dependent on the Hindu vote while Muslims have a chunk in some regions in UP. A day ago, a team led by Dharmendra Pradhan was also set to woo Brahmins in UP. The same Brahmins that Ambedkariyas of BJP abuse all year and have more or less wiped out of education system due to Reservation. All these are not signs of confidence. All these are signs of FEAR. As with Bengal where they rushed a lot of ministers to campaign, the BJP assembled all their CMs for a big show of strength in Varanasi and Ayodhya. They did an overkill in Bengal and they are about to do an overkill in UP too:

In another meeting, Amit Shah, the most incompetent of ministers in the Modi Cabinet, yet again screamed BJP will win 300+ in UP. The guy doesn’t learn any lessons. In 2017, he bragged BJP will get 150 in Gujarat. They barely managed to cling to a majority and got 99. In Bengal he bragged BJP would get 200, they ended up with 75. However, why so much overkill with the shows and razzmatazz in a Covid-ridden campaign? Because the opinion polls are showing a steady decline in seats for the BJP in UP:

The ABP poll is not the only one showing a decline in seats. Timesnow polls showed a decline too. I am sure BJP too must have an internal group doing their own surveys. Opinion polls cannot be accurate but there is always a “natural anti-incumbency” for every ruling party. It may be in a loss or reduced seats. The BJP got 71 LS seats from UP in 2014 but were reduced to around 62 in 2019. And the excessive chest-thumping and overkill is being caused by a sense of fear of losing or a heavily reduced number of seats. There is a reason Modi and BJP have lost over 10 states in the last four years. Even as you brag about your achievements, there has to be a touch of modesty. Modi blundered with his “Didi-O-Didi” taunts in Bengal. In Bengal too, the media and BJP footsies behaved as if the BJP is the only party contesting. They are doing the same in UP.

One hopes for Yogi’s sake that BJP campaigners bring back some modesty in their speeches. It is a psychological fact that people are repulsed by overkill. BJP lost Bengal partly because of an overkill and partly for sucking up to Muslims and Mujibur. Modi should recall his grandiose announcements in Bihar 2015. He asked the crowds how much they wanted as doles and finally promised 1.25 lakh crores as if he is some great emperor showering crumbs on his subjects. And for all those grand announcements the BJP alliance lost Bihar in 2015:

On December 25, BJP ministers and senior members celebrated Christmas with a begging bowl. Suddenly, all of them were seeking donations from the general public. I wonder why the biggest political party with maximum corporate funding and electoral bonds sale would resort to such beggary:

BJP received 76% of all Trust donations in 2019-20. The BJP received 276 crs, Congress 58 crores, SP 2 crores and all others 23 crores. The highest donations for BJP came from a Trust group of Airtel, Adil Infra and DLF. In case of Electoral Bonds too the BJP got 75% of the total collections. Hindustan Times reports from EC data: “The BJP… ₹2,555 crore-- via electoral bonds. This was up from ₹1,450 crore it received the previous year. The BJP’s cash flow, according to its audit report filed with the ECI, remains the highest among political parties at ₹3,501 crore, up from ₹1,904 in 2018-2019”.

That was for 2019-20. During the Covid-hit 2020-21 many pharma and vaccine companies would have made hefty donations. So, this begging for donations from public is NOT really a pauper seeking money. It is essentially to judge the public mood and response. The BJP is in fear of voters’ minds and doesn’t want another shock like Bengal. Thus, these donation-tricks used as public surveys expressed by money through action.

Whatever fears BJP has manifests in different ways. Firstly, Modi covers up all the failures of his govt with flashy, razzmatazz shows like I said before. Lipstick is the most powerful tool of Modi. Secondly, Yogi certainly has a strong standing as a better Hindu mascot than Modi. In May this year, Morning Consult, the same agency that gives top ratings to Modi among international Heads of govts showed a fall in his popularity within India:

Modi’s “Mann Ki Baat” once used to be eagerly awaited and trended on SM. Now it neither trends nor anybody from public bothers to comment on what he said. There is a fatigue to everything. In August 2021, India Today Mood of the Nation poll also showed a dip in Modi’s domestic popularity. India faces serious economy-problems and unemployment. Modi is fishing here and there for money to feed the beggars of this country. GST rates on some products will go up from January 2022. Ostentatious drama with Kashi or Ayodhya and excessive theatre is an overkill. The BJP and Modi would do well to remember the overkill in Bengal and show some modest caution.

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GOI Marriage Reformers

The common understanding of “Marriage” is that it’s a social union between two persons (so far man and woman in India). This is a union recognised by society and law. Marriage entails living a life together, procreation and economic continuity and progress. There are legal aspects that are determined by a marriage such as descendants, inheritance, divorce etc. In his I-Day speech in 2020, PM Narendra Modi talked about marriage age with the statement: "This government is constantly concerned about the health of daughters and sisters. To save the daughters from malnutrition, it is necessary that they're married at the right age."

Consequent to Modi’s declaration a Task Force (TF) was set up headed by Jaya Jaitly to decide the “right age” for marriage. When the PM had already decided the govt planned to raise the marriage for women from 18 to 21 there was no need for a bogus Task Force which was meant to echo his views and carry out his agenda. I have read reports on Jaya Jaitly’s comments on the Task Force’s work and findings but nowhere does it define what the “right age” is. I have also not read why 21 becomes the “right age” instead of 18.

There is some logic in the argument that very young marriages tend to fail as the partners may lack the maturity for a responsible married life. There’s no better example than Modi’s marriage itself. However, Indian marriages have lasted better than Western marriages as marriage is also seen as integration of families rather than just two individuals. Modi’s logic of saving girls from malnutrition is also empty blabber. There is no reason to believe girls will not suffer malnutrition after 21. The only argument for fixing an age for marriage can be biological and mental maturity. That would have to be backed by scientific and psychological evidence but I doubt the TF relied on any such evidence. But the TF claims “Gender Parity” as the main reason for raising the age to 21:

The TF claims to have taken feedback from 16 universities on raising the girl’s age for marriage. Therefore, I don’t think there is any “scientific investment” by the TF for increasing the age. Let me state clearly, I do not have any objection to raising the age. In fact, most modern-day marriages of educated persons happen around age 25-28. So, the mere law doesn’t make much of a difference to anyone EXCEPT those who still practice child-marriage. Most of the child marriages happen among Muslims and in Hindus among the SC/ST and OBC/Dalit groups. The question, therefore, is not a law but education that is most required to change marriage patterns. Child marriages have steadily come down in India over decades and is now around 27% and most of it happens in the Tribal, Dalit and Muslim communities:

The argument of “gender parity” for raising the girl’s age to 21 is nothing but total nonsense. Girls are legally allowed to be employed at age 14 (just like boys), except for certain work of hazardous nature. Women get rebates in Income Tax so gender parity as an argument is foolish. In the Railways, male senior citizens have to be age 60 but women are treated as senior citizens at age 45. So, where the hell does gender parity go in all these situations? Mind you, I am in favour of all these benefits to women but the argument of “Gender Parity” cannot be selectively used for marriage. Why not lower the age of males to marry at 18? That too would bring gender parity for argument’s sake.

Age is not the biggest problem in Indian marriages. It is the interpretation of laws, personal laws, social situations that defeats the purpose of any uniform law. Although there is a Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, courts have frequently ruled that child marriages are not automatically void. That a partner should seek to void the marriage on reaching age 18 and nor is child marriage treated as a serious offence:

The matter becomes even more complex when Muslims refuse to accept Indian laws on marriage but prefer to stick to their Sharia or Personal Laws. Many courts have repeatedly ruled in favour of Muslim marriages at 15 and legitimized such marriages. So, there is no reason to believe that a new law will change anything. Although the law is yet to be made and come into force, one has to wait and see if the law makes it mandatory for all and courts too accept that has the final say on marriage age. Given the objections it is fair to assume there may be some PILs challenging the law and ModiSarkar is on “Withdrawal Symptoms” mode. In cases of Tribal marriages, the courts have refused to administer Hindu Marriage Act but cited Constitutional provisions and have legalized Muslim marriages at age 15:

Last year, Tribal groups in Karnataka demanded that their marriage age be reduced to 16 for girls and 18 for boys. Regardless of any laws, child marriages continue and will continue among many communities. Modi’s idea of saving women from “malnutrition” and hence raising the marriage age is illogical. Equally illogical is the TF argument of “gender parity” because gender disparity is now deep-rooted in politics and laws. Ask political parties to give equal number of tickets to men and women for elections they will turn a deaf ear. In other words, what is good for you to practice is evil for political parties to practice.

Another dumb argument put forth by the TF and the usual coolies of Modi and BJP is that raising the girl’s age to 21 will enable her to continue studies and seek a professional career. How stupid can they get? Most education drop-out happens in schools much before the age of 16 due to multiple reasons – lack of academic interest, exam failure, economic condition of the family needing the youngster to work or no further opportunities in the area. There is absolutely no logic in assuming that all women get married when they get to 18. That child marriage is reducing but continues in some communities is a SPECIFIC problem. Instead of addressing the specific problem the GOI wants to treat marriage age as a “pandemic” affecting all communities. This is the fallacy that embellishes the proposed new law.

To a majority of Indians, the new law will not make any difference as most girls today are not getting married at 18. Some marriages also become inevitable due to pregnancy. If a girl gets pregnant at 16 or 17, it makes sense for the biological father to marry her and accept responsibility. Sex with minors is a crime in India but folks don’t read the law to get into a relationship or have sex. Crimes do happen and, often, out of mutual consent in a young relationship.

The biggest problem with the proposed law is not the age itself. It is that it lacks any scientific or psychological evidence or backup to determine what is a “right age” to get married. The Task Force is not entirely a scientific body nor does it rely on scientific research to establish its findings. All it does to execute Modi’s already made public declaration and back it by some feedback and opinions. No one can really determine what is a “right age” for marriage. Only data of failed and successful marriages can establish a pattern.

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