Trump Tariff & Turmoil

Karma is not a “beach” in Goa, it is right at your doorstep. PM Narendra Modi has learned nothing in his life except to lie, be pompous, chest-thump with fakery and fool people with bogus promises. Despite hanging out and swinging with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a long time, Modi hasn’t learned from him to keep his mouth shut when matters don’t concern him or India in anyway. On January 6, 2021, Donald Trump was still the President of the US and there were claims of election-frauds and riots at the Capitol Hill in Washington DC by Trump supporters. True to his nature, the Dehati Duffer made this stupid tweet:

Modi had called Trump a “great phraand” in all his meetings and events. And then to make such a tweet while Trump was still president would obviously imply many things; one of them being the “unlawful” protests were being fueled by Trump. Modi thought he could dance with the Democrats and Trump is not returning again. Unfortunately for him, Karma is a bitch that keeps coming back. Trump not only returned as President but after becoming President he pardoned 1600 of those jailed for the January 6 events while some had their sentences commuted. But Trump did not forgive one man – Modi!

Since he returned as President, Trump has treated Modi shabbily. He wasn’t invited to his inauguration and when he met Trump at the White House later, he was received by some lowly official while Trump had personally received all other leaders. The Presser later had more embarrassing moments for Modi. When asked a question, Modi didn’t get it was for him and Trump sarcastically said “The question is for you but I will still answer it”. And yet another reporter hit directly at Modi’s heart by asking about Adani. In just over 6 months, Trump’s vengeance has struck Modi and, consequently, India with punitive tariffs. First a 25% and then another 25% punitive tariff for importing Russian oil against US sanctions (as Trump claims). All this after Modi’s coolies hung around in the US for days and couldn’t seal a trade deal.

To divert a bit. On December 6, 2021 Vladimir Putin, the Russian President (For life?) paid a sudden, one-day visit to India. Putin, of course, is a suave, sophisticated politician who was also an Intelligence Officer for 16 years in his career. On the face of it this is what transpired in the meeting Putin had with Modi in Delhi:

S-400 and AK-203 are all very fine. But we have hindsight now. Putin’s main purpose it seems was to privately inform Modi about his plans to invade Ukraine (which he did in February 2022) and seek his support by a trade-off by buying Russian oil for partly funding his war (prior to that, India’s highest oil imports were from Iraq). That now seems “mission accomplished” for Putin and Modi, seems to have willingly played along. Nothing wrong in that deal except that the US and NATO later turned on Modi as being a Russian-stooge and compelled him to make a half-hearted visit to Ukraine to show his “Buddh not Yuddh” nonsense”. This clandestine deal is what irks the US more than any tariff issue in addition to the vengeance Trump wants to wreak on Modi:

What should have been just a trade deal to solve grievances on both sides has now graduated into an economic war on India by Trump and that has resulted Modi once again playing the widow, victim and Meena Kumari – She, the Dehati Aurat that has been suffering all her life from atrocities from Brahmins, UCs, lack of water, lack of education, lack of a decent spouse, lack of sex, lack of money, extreme gareebi, bartan-washing mother and what not. Now, the ultimate atrocity has come from an American President so Modi, once again, decides to pay a “PERSONAL PRICE” to protect the farmers of India:

The farmer issue is not cited by Trump or any of the US negotiators as an irritant in making a trade deal. When Trump called India a “Tariff King” there is definitely some reason for it because India has historically created trade barriers and ran a “protectionist” economy being a poor country. India still remains a poor country practically with a per capita GDP of  just around $2500 or so. Let’s get some raw facts out of the way on Indian exports to the US and India currently has a favourable balance of trade with the US:

The story of India’s tariffs on the US (and others) is not fully explained by the experts who have outraged on the punitive tariffs by Trump. Here’s a look at what India does to ensure many US/foreign products simply will not be attractive or feasible for an average business to import:

Laughably, the one thing that India reduced after some rounds of discussion is the tariff on American whisky from 150 to 100% so that the Ambanis and Adanis can happily entertain their bribe-seekers. As for the simple weighted average shown in the bottom image – that is misleading. In most cases, the tariff is zero or under 7% for items that India badly needs while others are taxed so heavily that import and trade is nearly impossible. Any set of statistics/data can always be cleverly manipulated which our experts and media happily do. 

India is being punished with an additional tariff of 25%, taking it to 50%, by the US (with a window to comply till August 27) because of Russian oil and not so much because it wants to sell farm products. China is also buying Russian oil but Trump doesn’t dare to confront China. Many Chinese companies also complied with US sanctions against Russia and those who didn’t were also sanctioned by the US. Remember, the US is a huge debtor to China (1 Trillion dollars). However, the Dehati Modi makes it out as if he is the “VICTIM” who will protect farmers from the atrocity of “US Brahmins”. Needlessly to say, that worthless stunt is for Bihar elections and typically Modi met a bunch of Tamil Nadu farmers a day ago. Two states up for elections within 9 months. 

What Trump has effectively done is, he has put Modi on the mat to now negotiate on the 50% tariff rather than the earlier situation where India was negotiating only on the initial 25%. Either way, the ones most affected will be the businesses – medium and big, in the private sector. India’s GDP may also be dented to some extent but not so greatly. But the very experts and morons who led India up a garden path under a clueless PM like Modi are now grandly stating that this crisis is a great opportunity for “grand reforms”. Like this one:

Modi has not made any great reforms in the 11 years that he has been PM. He neither has the brains nor the intelligence for it nor is he a person who would be willing to stake his electoral fortunes on drastic reforms. All that Modi has done in 11 years is worsened caste politics, loot taxes, dramatically increased doles and peddling nonsensical slogans to the illiterate voters of India. His entire goal is to remain PM till he dies and nothing else.

Modi is also scheduled to visit China for an upcoming SCO meet. Some are also suggesting that since US is now acting almost anti-India, Modi will make “phraands” with China again. I doubt that will happen and that would be more stupid than before because China will never change as an enemy of India. Nor is India going to come out of the turmoil by Modi acting like a widow and victim. That is the usual “Nautanki” of the Dehati Duffer. India can only be patient like the vulture and use all its available negotiating skills in bargaining and reaching a compromise with the US and at the same time keep some semblance of importing Russian oil without losing its pride.

The one lesson that Modi must learn (although he is unteachable) is that nobody is a “friend” in international politics – it is all business. Hugging, kissing, chest-thumping and guffawing like a fool with silly jokes is not necessary for diplomatic success. A certain level of modesty, distance and cordiality would do well for Modi and his morons. 

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Modi's Afghan Capers

Indians are heckling the US for suddenly withdrawing from Afghanistan. Though the withdrawal wasn’t sudden as everyone implies, nobody expected the turmoil it has led to with the Taliban quickly seizing power again. The US isn’t bothered much, it will get past this. It is India that looks stupid and left holding the baby and worried about what will happen in the region. On August 17, PM Modi typically held a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to figure out what to do. As dumb as Modi and his EAM, Jaishankar, is, they are always unfailingly late to these situations. Modi was late on Covid, was late on the 2^nd round of Covid and is late on the Afghan issue too. You have to wonder what magical discussions happened in this CCS meet:

If you see the headline the concern is a lot about the Chinese funding Taliban and taking control of Afghanistan indirectly. Others are worried that terrorism in Kashmir will grow now that the Taliban is in control and in partnership with Pakistan. This is an unnecessary worry. Terrorism hasn’t stopped in Kashmir so the chances of it growing are minimal. In the churning that has happened in Afghanistan, India loses almost everything. Apart from the billions of dollars sunk in investments for nation-building in that country, India stands to lose influence on events there. The US, China, Pakistan will retain a good bit of influence but India will be left holding the baby. And even so, there are idiots who cannot stop crying for the Afghans and like this one and like “Raja Babu” Modi they want to take in all Afghans who can escape to India:

It is outright disgusting that Modi wants to take in Afghans without any limit or scrutiny while he brags about feeding 80cr “Bhooka-Nanga” in India for the last one and a half years. The elites like Kiran Shaw wouldn’t want one single tent of refugees near their bungalows. They would instantly complain to the police. The only ones that will struggle more are the ones in the slums who will be swamped with more useless population. ModiSarkar has set up an online “Emergency Visa” system for the Afghans wanting to escape the Taliban. All this just for him to look good with more lipstick and make up:

All of Modi’s decisions in such situations are knee-jerk and thoughtless while he ignores the real emergencies under his watch. The US did not start withdrawing on August 17 when the CCS meet was held by Modi. The US was also not the only country. Since the deal with Taliban was made in February 2020, many countries like Australia, Britain, Belgium, New Zealand etc. have slowly withdrawn from Afghanistan. The US was also withdrawing its troops and had reduced dramatically by August. The Taliban started taking over towns from July 9 onwards while Modi and Jaishankar were sleeping. They were sleeping till the Taliban had entered Kabul and running riot all over the place. And then Jaishankar grandly tweets how difficult it was to get the Indian staff to the airport and out of Kabul:

Before putting on such incompetence on display, Jaishankar was also giving worthless speeches at the UNSC. Schoolgirl speeches with the same old moth-eaten lines as “Terrorism has no religion… Terrorism has no nation”. Nobody in the world cares about such childish garbage from a billion plus country. And that’s the reason India has become a wimp among all the major nations. Our foreign policies are not driven by our “self-interests” and systematic pursuits but a megalomaniac “Raja Babu” who thinks it’s his “personal” equation that drives them.

Modi is on record stating that self-interest is not in India’s culture. He danced with Obama, even calling him by his first name “Barrack” as if they were “Langotiya” friends and Obama resoundingly slapped him with a comment on religious intolerance under Modi. Covid struck India on January 30, 2020 but Modi was again ignorant. He went off to dance with Trump on February 24 at Ahmedabad. He didn’t wake up to Covid till March 20 and his stilly “Taali Bajao, Ghanti Bajao” scheme. In 2019 he danced with Trump at Houston with “Ab ki baar Trump Sarkar”. Trump was gone faster than the wind. Modi’s dhoti, fish and Idli nonsense with Xi Jinping also ended up in the dustbin. Now they are not on hugging or kissing terms. Afghanistan? Gone! In the meanwhile, Modi did get the highest Afghan award of “Amir Amanullah Khan” for his services to Afghanistan.

It’s laughable how Modi turned India into a coolie for US and NATO to do all the donkey work in Afghanistan. And now, it’s all gone. Trump even mocked Modi for building a library in Kabul as if they desperately needed one. The brainless jerks that GOI and MEA are, they had welcomed the US deal with Taliban. What did these fools expect? That that Taliban will come singing with flowers to garland the books in the library and do Saraswati Puja?

All of Modi’s foreign policies were mostly driven by his so-called “personal” rapport with other leaders. When that rapport is gone, the relations also dim. India spent billions in Afghanistan hoping to gain some influence in that border state of Pakistan but all that is now gone. India should have never done anything other than serve humanitarian needs like food or medicine in Afghanistan. First the UPA and then a bigger jump by Modi demonstrated India’s lack of prudence and vision in the region. Afghanistan has always been a country of tribes and warlords almost eternally at war. And they will probably remain so. In the process, they have slaughtered Hindus and Sikhs from a sizeable population to nothing:

The report above seems to suggest the Taliban had rather left the Hindus alone. For Hindus, the GOI must never help any Afghan other than Hindus and Sikhs. A Sikh Canadian minister has openly welcomed Sikhs to Canada. India should not take in any Afghans other than Hindus and Sikhs. Where Afghan Muslims are concerned, it is for them to fight their own battles as the Taliban is the greatest example of what Islam really is. The Afghan Muslims also have the option to go to Pakistan or other Muslim countries. SAARC, BRICS, NAM all lie in shambles and that's a good indication of India's lack of prudence.

The Islam and Sharia that Taliban practices is also practiced by Saudi Arabia. Only that the rulers of Saudis are richer and better dressed and probably brush their teeth every day. Afghanistan is also proof of what was once a Hindu land, with Hindu people and what happens when Islam becomes the religion of the majority. The warnings are already there for India becoming a Talibanised country with murderous Sharia practices:

Muslims in India secretly adore and love the Taliban because they represent the TRUE FACE of Islam. Majority of Muslims also support Islamic courts and Sharia. Modi is not a very educated man or a man with vision or prudence. There is no need to take in any Afghans unless they are Hindus or non-Muslims who face persecution. The only help India must provide is humanitarian and not stock up more worthless refugees. We are not a rich country that can afford it. Modi’s Afghan capers will cost India and Hindus more than before.

 

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