Trump Tariff & Turmoil

Karma is not a “beach” in Goa, it is right at your doorstep. PM Narendra Modi has learned nothing in his life except to lie, be pompous, chest-thump with fakery and fool people with bogus promises. Despite hanging out and swinging with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a long time, Modi hasn’t learned from him to keep his mouth shut when matters don’t concern him or India in anyway. On January 6, 2021, Donald Trump was still the President of the US and there were claims of election-frauds and riots at the Capitol Hill in Washington DC by Trump supporters. True to his nature, the Dehati Duffer made this stupid tweet:

Modi had called Trump a “great phraand” in all his meetings and events. And then to make such a tweet while Trump was still president would obviously imply many things; one of them being the “unlawful” protests were being fueled by Trump. Modi thought he could dance with the Democrats and Trump is not returning again. Unfortunately for him, Karma is a bitch that keeps coming back. Trump not only returned as President but after becoming President he pardoned 1600 of those jailed for the January 6 events while some had their sentences commuted. But Trump did not forgive one man – Modi!

Since he returned as President, Trump has treated Modi shabbily. He wasn’t invited to his inauguration and when he met Trump at the White House later, he was received by some lowly official while Trump had personally received all other leaders. The Presser later had more embarrassing moments for Modi. When asked a question, Modi didn’t get it was for him and Trump sarcastically said “The question is for you but I will still answer it”. And yet another reporter hit directly at Modi’s heart by asking about Adani. In just over 6 months, Trump’s vengeance has struck Modi and, consequently, India with punitive tariffs. First a 25% and then another 25% punitive tariff for importing Russian oil against US sanctions (as Trump claims). All this after Modi’s coolies hung around in the US for days and couldn’t seal a trade deal.

To divert a bit. On December 6, 2021 Vladimir Putin, the Russian President (For life?) paid a sudden, one-day visit to India. Putin, of course, is a suave, sophisticated politician who was also an Intelligence Officer for 16 years in his career. On the face of it this is what transpired in the meeting Putin had with Modi in Delhi:

S-400 and AK-203 are all very fine. But we have hindsight now. Putin’s main purpose it seems was to privately inform Modi about his plans to invade Ukraine (which he did in February 2022) and seek his support by a trade-off by buying Russian oil for partly funding his war (prior to that, India’s highest oil imports were from Iraq). That now seems “mission accomplished” for Putin and Modi, seems to have willingly played along. Nothing wrong in that deal except that the US and NATO later turned on Modi as being a Russian-stooge and compelled him to make a half-hearted visit to Ukraine to show his “Buddh not Yuddh” nonsense”. This clandestine deal is what irks the US more than any tariff issue in addition to the vengeance Trump wants to wreak on Modi:

What should have been just a trade deal to solve grievances on both sides has now graduated into an economic war on India by Trump and that has resulted Modi once again playing the widow, victim and Meena Kumari – She, the Dehati Aurat that has been suffering all her life from atrocities from Brahmins, UCs, lack of water, lack of education, lack of a decent spouse, lack of sex, lack of money, extreme gareebi, bartan-washing mother and what not. Now, the ultimate atrocity has come from an American President so Modi, once again, decides to pay a “PERSONAL PRICE” to protect the farmers of India:

The farmer issue is not cited by Trump or any of the US negotiators as an irritant in making a trade deal. When Trump called India a “Tariff King” there is definitely some reason for it because India has historically created trade barriers and ran a “protectionist” economy being a poor country. India still remains a poor country practically with a per capita GDP of  just around $2500 or so. Let’s get some raw facts out of the way on Indian exports to the US and India currently has a favourable balance of trade with the US:

The story of India’s tariffs on the US (and others) is not fully explained by the experts who have outraged on the punitive tariffs by Trump. Here’s a look at what India does to ensure many US/foreign products simply will not be attractive or feasible for an average business to import:

Laughably, the one thing that India reduced after some rounds of discussion is the tariff on American whisky from 150 to 100% so that the Ambanis and Adanis can happily entertain their bribe-seekers. As for the simple weighted average shown in the bottom image – that is misleading. In most cases, the tariff is zero or under 7% for items that India badly needs while others are taxed so heavily that import and trade is nearly impossible. Any set of statistics/data can always be cleverly manipulated which our experts and media happily do. 

India is being punished with an additional tariff of 25%, taking it to 50%, by the US (with a window to comply till August 27) because of Russian oil and not so much because it wants to sell farm products. China is also buying Russian oil but Trump doesn’t dare to confront China. Many Chinese companies also complied with US sanctions against Russia and those who didn’t were also sanctioned by the US. Remember, the US is a huge debtor to China (1 Trillion dollars). However, the Dehati Modi makes it out as if he is the “VICTIM” who will protect farmers from the atrocity of “US Brahmins”. Needlessly to say, that worthless stunt is for Bihar elections and typically Modi met a bunch of Tamil Nadu farmers a day ago. Two states up for elections within 9 months. 

What Trump has effectively done is, he has put Modi on the mat to now negotiate on the 50% tariff rather than the earlier situation where India was negotiating only on the initial 25%. Either way, the ones most affected will be the businesses – medium and big, in the private sector. India’s GDP may also be dented to some extent but not so greatly. But the very experts and morons who led India up a garden path under a clueless PM like Modi are now grandly stating that this crisis is a great opportunity for “grand reforms”. Like this one:

Modi has not made any great reforms in the 11 years that he has been PM. He neither has the brains nor the intelligence for it nor is he a person who would be willing to stake his electoral fortunes on drastic reforms. All that Modi has done in 11 years is worsened caste politics, loot taxes, dramatically increased doles and peddling nonsensical slogans to the illiterate voters of India. His entire goal is to remain PM till he dies and nothing else.

Modi is also scheduled to visit China for an upcoming SCO meet. Some are also suggesting that since US is now acting almost anti-India, Modi will make “phraands” with China again. I doubt that will happen and that would be more stupid than before because China will never change as an enemy of India. Nor is India going to come out of the turmoil by Modi acting like a widow and victim. That is the usual “Nautanki” of the Dehati Duffer. India can only be patient like the vulture and use all its available negotiating skills in bargaining and reaching a compromise with the US and at the same time keep some semblance of importing Russian oil without losing its pride.

The one lesson that Modi must learn (although he is unteachable) is that nobody is a “friend” in international politics – it is all business. Hugging, kissing, chest-thumping and guffawing like a fool with silly jokes is not necessary for diplomatic success. A certain level of modesty, distance and cordiality would do well for Modi and his morons. 

Follow on Twitter.

EF Invites Funding For A Major Project

Remit From India      Remit From Outside India