BJP's Maha Folly

Now that the dust has settled on the Maharashtra political ruckus and govt formation, we can look at events and history a bit more calmly. The Shiv Sena (SS) has formed a govt with Congress and NCP. I am not concerned with how long it will last. What this post is concerned with is the poor foresight and wisdom among BJP leaders in allying with the two-bit SS in the first place. It is not “Mahayuti” as they call it but “Mahamoronery” to say the least. The BJP doesn’t learn from history it seems. But before all that, there are also equal number of morons among the RW who still think SS was a Hindutva party that has changed stripes, that Bal Thackeray (BT) was a Hindutva icon and all that rubbish. Let’s get some understanding of history first.

The SS was formed in 1966 with the help of Congress and Bombay industrialists to combat Commie unions in Bombay. BT added another ingredient to it called “Aamchi Mumbai” and non-Marathis to get out. Therefore, the first assault by SS was on Commie union leaders and the non-Marathis (South Indians, Bengalis etc). Many non-Marathi families were violently attacked and driven out of Mumbai. Majority of these families were obviously Hindus. The culmination of this violent cult resulted in the murder of a Commie union leader and MLA Krishna Desai for which over a dozen SS men were convicted. BT was not charged or implicated in this. It is this cult of violence, fear-mongering that made BT a “force” in Mumbai and not any political ideology and the term “Hindutva” was hardly in the political lexicon back then. Politicians, Cops and other local entities developed a fear of BT for his “Disruptive” capabilities. Thus, whether in power or not, BT could influence political events and outcomes and politicians genuflected before him at Matoshree. He became “Sarkar” as the movie projected him.

It is only towards the late 1980s that BT understood that violence isn’t paying politically and his party got nowhere that he sobered it down and started becoming more of a “politician”. This sobering down took on a more “patriotic” flavour. Remember, in 1991 SS men dug up the Wankhede pitch to prevent a match with Pakistan which thrilled the Hindus. As the Hindutva movement, led by LK Advani started gaining ground, BT’s clothes also changed from white to “Saffron”. By mid-90s BJP started winning some elections here and there and for the first time the SS-BJP combined came to power in 1995 in Maha and Manohar Joshi became CM. By 1995 BJP also got its permanent footing in Gujarat and became a political force. Later on, AB Vajpayee would become PM and BJP kept rising as a national party while SS remained a local party Mumbai Municipality. This dwindled the dominance of SS vs BJP. Thus, from a dominant partner, SS had become a “sidekick” that had lesser influence on BJP. In time to come, Narendra Modi became a nationally popular force and that finally asserted BJP’s supremacy over SS in Maha politics, as in many other states.

By the 1990s, BT who was just known as “Bal Thackeray” came to be respectfully addressed as “Balasaheb” and continued to exert influence in Maha politics whether in power or not. He had such an enormous clout that that all political leaders genuflected at his feet. With his death in 2012, the SS had lost all that “phenomenal informal power”. The replacement kid, Udhav Thackeray (UT), had neither the charisma nor the intelligence or sharp wit of BT to be as dominant a force in politics as BT was. In addition, with time, BT had become the senior-most figure among all his peers, so that brought him some reverence too. It is not easy to fill the shoes of a giant like BT and that was the biggest problem of the “power hungry” UT. But even with the giant BT, SS never won a majority on its own in Maha. Thus, SS always remained on the side-line and their only way to power was with some alliance. But even before the death of BT, I had warned the BJP never to have a prepoll alliance with SS because the party neither had any ideology and all the Hindutva crap being credited to it is nothing but falsehood:

 

PM Modi understood this and did not ally with SS in 2014. The BJP won LS and Maharashtra on their own (although outside support was needed in Maha to form the govt). It is only after the results in 2014 that SS became a partner with BJP in the Maha govt. It would naturally hurt UT’s ego to realise that he is just a bit-player and does not possess the “Dadagiri” of BT. “Balasaheb” had open contempt and disdain for many of his alliance partners, including LK Advani. He was sharp-tongued and even said “those who bow before Sonia are Hijdas”. You can easily conclude what UT is if you go by that statement of BT. The other Thackeray, Raj, was reduced to a mere roadside-watcher in politics. What UT wanted was, the same power that BT had without contesting elections. He was more power-hungry than BT as his son AUT too is. These men haven’t built anything on their own, therefore, their lust is different. And then came the Palghar bypoll in May 2018. This is an event that most people are simply ignoring. It was the final insult to UT’s ego that turned him into a vengeful politician desperate for power at any and all cost:

 

Mentally, UT had already sworn revenge after the Palghar bypoll loss. He started publicly slamming PM Modi, even going to the extent of using “Chowkidar Chor” in a public meeting. UT also started hobnobbing with “Sickular” forces like Mamata Banerjee and their lovey-dovey exchanges were there for everyone to see (Except Devendra Fadnavis who was blind):

 

If not for his fear and knowledge that he would be slaughtered in Maha elections if he broke from BJP, UT would have also attended that spurious “Unity rally” of Mamata in Kolkata. The fallout of the Palghar bypoll fight was not missed by even the moronic media. Somehow, BJP and Fadnavis completely missed it altogether:

 

With all the actions, utterances and even the “Chowkidar Chor” reference, the BJP and Fadnavis simply failed to measure the motives of UT. He is not a BT who had any ideological compulsions later in life. UT simply wanted power, to seek revenge against Fadnavis and upstage the BJP as the major force in Maharashtra politics and sustain or rebuild the languishing influence of SS in the state’s politics. It is unfortunate that the BJP failed to recognise this freaky chameleon and still took on the SS as an ally after much protracted negotiations over seats. And if anyone was in doubt over the motives of UT in partnering BJP, the NCP MLA and leader Anil Deshmukh repeatedly alluded that post-elections, the NCP-Congress-SS would form the govt. In a speech and an interview, Deshmukh asserted this confidently. Hindsight, is a gift to all of us, but foresight should have been a gift with BJP with shrewd players like Amit Shah who were watching all this (Video 37 secs):

 

By the time Deshmukh made his speeches, it was too late to correct any mistakes. The withdrawal dates were over and elections were just a few days away. BJP’s fate was sealed even before the elections. I don’t think anyone is in doubt that UT and SS would have been in shambles had BJP gone it alone with the powerful magnetic pull of PM Modi with the voters. BJP didn’t lose the Maha election, they are victims of bad judgment and a bad partner. That is all there is to it. And post-results, Fadnavis lamented that UT was not even taking his calls. It is not because the post-election nonsense of 50:50 demand by UT or anything else was the reason. SS and UT had already made up their mind before elections to have their own CM and they knew it wouldn’t be possible with BJP:

That’s not all, after stepping down as CM for “80 hours”, Fadnavis made a statement that SS had surrendered “Hindutva at Sonia’s feet”. This is hypocrisy at its worst. In the five years that he was CM, Fadnavis had completely forgotten Hindutva and never uttered the word once. He was busy pleasing Muslims giving Minority scholarships and calling it “Sabka Saath”, he was allowing Kabrastans near Hindu temple, sporting Muslim gear at Bohra celebrations and his wife was doing Christmas Carols. Hindus were seriously short-changed by the Fadnavis-govt and ModiSarkar had better take that warning seriously or they will alienate more Hindus:

 

The map is only “indicative” and like the BJP BhajanMandlis one need not try to find excuses or dissect the reducing Saffron colour by some statistics of voting percentage or other factors. Simple fact is, if BJP could win a giant state like UP in 3 big elections without any partner, there was no reason to ally with the treacherous SS and UT. If that lesson is learned, then BJP will be back with a thumping victory again. The other lesson BJP has to learn, no amount of lipstick for “Sickularism” will get it anywhere. They cannot beat the Sickulars at their game – the only way they can win is with Hindutva as its core. That is the only thing that separates BJP from the motley crowd.

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Make Mumbai A Separate State

"Maharashtra crime rate has increased in the last 10 years. Examine from where the people perpetrating the crimes come from. We have blamed police and intelligence enough in all these years, now it is time to check on the migrants." - Raj Thackeray.

The above statement has been categorised as one of the most stupid ones coming out after the latest Mumbai terror attack. Many people have reacted to the statement with condemnation. The Shiv Sena and the MNS are known for their historically anti-migrant stand, especially in recent times this being against migrants from Bihar and UP. The Shivsena, in fact, was born as an anti-migrant movement (then against South Indians). Therefore, for that reason such a statement from Raj Thackeray is viewed politically. Had it come from someone else and had the term used been ‘illegal migrants’ it would not have caused so much offence.

In an unrelated topic, on the night of the recent blasts on NDTV’s Left, Right and Centre someone called Jerry Pinto (I think it was him) lashed out at Nidhi Razdan. His rant was excessive but the point he was making was that each time these attacks happen, Mumbai is usually being discussed by people sitting in Delhi or other places. He had a valid point which he delivered a bit too harshly. Also, on TV you usually find panellists, even from Mumbai, who usually do not face the brunt of these incidents. Unless you wish to refer to the attacks on five star hotels. The attack on Zaveri Bazar wasn’t just on the diamond market. The diamond business is largely populated with Gujaratis. There hangs a tale.

Most of us would have been in Mumbai at some point or the other for some reason. I can make the safe assumption that the ones who criticise and rant against the ‘migrant’ theory the most are the ones who have never been in Mumbai or have very limited knowledge about the place. I was born in Mumbai. I have lived there. I have worked there and I still spend a good deal of time in Mumbai. My mother’s home is a few hundred yards away from Kabutar Khana at Dadar where one of the serial blasts happened. Let’s examine some facts about Mumbai:

India Today: “ (Mumbai) A 468 sq-km linear city, it is less than a third the size of Delhi's 1,483 sq km. But it is the country's most densely packed metropolis. It has 29,042 people per sq km to Delhi's 9,294 people per sq km, making policing difficult for its 60,000-strong force. Its local trains carry 69 lakh passengers every day….. The buses in Mumbai carry 45 lakh passengers every day….Its coastline is open to attack, as 26/11 proved. Its water pipelines are susceptible to sabotage. The pipelines are surrounded by around 35,000 shanties and shockingly, the BMC does not have a record of people staying there. Security experts have often warned that anti-social elements can break the water pipelines and contaminate the water. The Bombay High Court in 2009 had rapped the BMC for compromising citizens' health by allowing slums around water pipes…… The BMC started a demolition drive after that but could not clear the slums completely. Former IPS officer Y.P. Singh says, "Mumbai is the perfect advertisement for any terrorist organisation that wants to make an impact. Seasonal downpours, which come in the way of effective policing, present the best opportunity."

Mumbai population explosion (Source: India Online) : 29 lakhs (1901), 12.5 Million (1991), 18 Million (2006) and 21 Million (2011)

 

(Rediff): In terms of illegal immigrants in Mumbai, Bangladeshis alone account for between 3.5 lakhs according to a minister and 16.0 lakhs according to Kirit Somaya, a former MP.  What would you say about a government that can’t even get its numbers right on such matters? This is in no way to suggest that any of this population is involved in crimes but the possibilities that some may be cannot be discounted. But it sure is a matter of serious concern.

The migrant issue should be viewed not in the light of politics or vote-banks but in the light of the fact that the city of Mumbai simply cannot absorb any more population explosion. It might also be worth understanding that except for some parts of South Mumbai and some parts of the Western suburbs, most parts of Mumbai have simply become un-liveable. It is not long before the whole city is turned into a shanty.

If you happen to work in Mumbai and have to get to the railway station and catch a train you would have to navigate your way through enormous crowds right through your path to the station. Much of these crowds surrounding most of the suburban stations are either unemployed or daily wagers. And mostly migrants. And yes, currently most of them are from Bihar and UP.  Both sides of many suburban stations are practically informal ‘employment exchanges’. The crowds at the station and on the trains are equally daunting. You need to have eyes in your feet. Add to this the fact that much of Mumbai’s infrastructure is already creaking. The less said about the traffic and roads the better.

A large number of the people migrating into Mumbai every day are not ones who have proper jobs or residences before they land there. They are poor migrants seeking a livelihood to escape the poverty and strife back home. They usually end up with relatives in slums or shanties or on the pavements. In it’s current state Mumbai simply cannot absorb more people without proper jobs or residences. It does not have water or sanitation resources to cater to even the existing population in proper residences.

When was the last time you heard the central government or any state government talk about population? Have you seen any population control campaigns in the last few years? The 1.2 billion talk sounds like something to be very proud about but fact is as the population grows uncontrolled it also increases the absolute number of people below poverty line or lower middle class in far higher proportion than the ones who are becoming wealthy. The government of the day doesn’t really mind! The population increase is clearly largely in its own vote-banks.

Apart from being the financial hub of the nation Mumbai is also geographically strategically located. There are pockets in South Mumbai with the mafia, places like Mumbra and other places like Nalasopara, Vasai etc. which have the potential to become criminal hubs. All of these suburbs have many illegal constructions, slums and shanties.

Mumbai cannot be managed the way it’s been done for the last two decades. Change is desirable and dramatic change is required. Mumbai needs to be a separate state.

1.   Migration must be controlled. I am not talking about migration from North, East or South but migrants without proper place to live in must be curbed.

2.   Remove all illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan or any other country on a war footing.

3.   Illegal slums and newer slums be cleared and those jobless in these illegal slums must be sent back if they do not have alternative residences.

4.   All illegal pavement kiosks, businesses and squatters must be removed. Rehabilitate them while curbing newer migration. If the CM wants to de-congest, start with illegal encroachments.

5.   Despite the Slum Rehabilitation Authority’s (SRA) work to rehabilitate slum-dwellers many of them are unwilling to move. Pack them up if they don’t move and send them back.

In 2010 Delhi hosted the Commonwealth Games. In the course of beautifying the city for its foreign guests Delhi cleaned up the city. Many slums, pavement dwellers, shanties, pavement eateries and shops and many illegal constructions disappeared. Where did they go? What do you think happened? If that was possible in Delhi it is possible in Mumbai. Why should we wait for some international event to clean up our metros and clear illegal dwellings?

Following the recent terror attacks many media persons and many commentators asked one of the most thoughtless questions: “If Mumbaikars are not happy with their government’s efforts on security why don’t they throw them out? Why did the South Mumbai voters go on a holiday during election-day? They all had the chance in 2009, didn’t they?”

The answer to that stupid question is simple – Mumbaikars really count only marginally when it comes to formation of the Maharashtra government. Remember, it’s the Maharashtra govt. not the Mumbai govt. There are 288 assembly seats in the state of which only 26 are in Greater Mumbai. That is less than 10%. So what logic tells these pundits that 10% gets to decide what 90% votes for? Naturally, Maharashtra governments rely heavily on the votes from the rest of Maharashtra and not so heavily on Mumbai. This is not to suggest that South Mumbai residents can afford not to vote. It is natural that most of the ministers in the Maharashtra cabinet are unlikely to be from Mumbai. So how do you really get the focus on Mumbai and how do Mumbaikars really get to decide what government they want? Right now they cannot!

When it comes to Mumbai alone it is not the Congress but the Shiv Sena that is in charge of the Municipal Corporation. The current mayor is also a Shiv Sena member. But Mumbai security is not under the BMC. Therein lies a small story of how Mumbaikars would vote if they really wanted a different government. This is not a story the media will tell you or the pundits would even want to talk about.This is also not about Congress, BJP or Shivsena.

P.R. Chavan the CM is now on record saying “Mumbai is not equipped to tackle terror…”. He appears to a sensible and reasonable man. But seriously, with all the problems of Mumbai that he faces do you really think he will do justice to the rest of Maharashtra or vice versa? Isn’t that one reason why we turned Delhi into a state? We did turn other places like Puducherry or Goa into states for administrative efficiency. We carved out Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and Uttarakhand. It is an irony of coalition compulsions I suppose that the same guy, R.R.Patil, who had to quit as Home minister after the 2008 attacks was the Home minister during these attacks too. If it were a Mumbai State Assembly I doubt R.R.Patil would even be in that assembly. There is no way Mumbaikars would vote for that man.

If you take any commercial or corporate organisation they would have divided Mumbai and the rest of Maharashtra (ROM) into to two distinct territories for their operations. Most telecom companies treat Greater Mumbai as a separate circle from Maharashtra. It all makes sense.

The creation of Mumbai as a separate state needs to be done without the emotion and sentiments attached like with Telengana. The population of Mumbai is larger than half the population of some states in India. It is larger than some countries in the world. The first step to a higher level of security is manageable territories, infrastructure and population with a greater focus by its government. Mumbai needs to be a separate state. 

Note: I have made the best attempt to quote accurate numbers and statistics. Even if they aren't exactly 100% accurate they are meant to serve the context of this discussion as this is not an exercise in statistics.