BJP - The Suicidal Bridesmaid

The last time India had ‘Strategic alliance’ discussions with the USA, it was advantage India all the way. India dictated what kind of technology should be freely made available to it by the US and they agreed. India also asked the US to get rid of their plans to park armed forces in the Bay of Bengal and the US meekly agreed. The US also agreed to support India’s plans on Internet censorship in the UN and ban service providers like Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and Twitter in the US instantly, if India ever demanded it. (The power of Zero Sibal!) The best part was India finally forced the US to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. All this was achieved by the smooth and tactful S.M. Krishna against a bungling Hillary Clinton. At the recent G-20 meet when our honest, principled and decisive PM met President Obama one could tell even from a great distance that ‘Obama’s legs were shaking with fear’. India’s position as the new superpower is now firmly established.

I know what you’re thinking! You’re probably thinking the crook has gone nuts!

'Black Lotus' - The Suicidal Bridesmaid

Alright, alright, none of the above ever happened. But I can dream, can’t I? And so can the BJP! Truth is, in a strategic alliance one is better off negotiating from a position of strength or, at worst, from a position of equals. The recent nomination of a presidential candidate, the fracas with JDU leader Nitish Kumar, a bullying Shiv Sena and many other issues have shown all the strengths of BJP with relation to its alliance partners. Alliances make any sense only if you are in power. I doubt you had an UPA in 1970, 1999 or pre-2004 elections. Just as the NDA was cobbled together in 1998-99 the UPA too was cobbled together in 2004. In both cases the alliance partners have frequently changed but the one on top, the one with ‘strength’ retained the advantage. Once out of power the NDA has been practically dead. This is the fake dream the BJP still lives with. This is the reality the BJP is simply unwilling to accept and act upon.Fact: Except for the SAD in Punjab and ShivSena in Maharashtra the BJP does not have any real long term allies. Now, in contrast, look at the formidable alliance the Congress has with either or all of the following players at any given time:

RJD, CPM, CPI, MIM, DMK, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, JD(S)-Karnataka, TRS (AP), CBI, ED, IT, RAW, NDTV, CNN-IBN, TimesNow, AajTak, HeadlinesToday, ABPNews (formerly StarNews), Indian Express, TOI, Hindustan Trolls,BSP (Mayawati), Christian missionaries, Islamic outlets, spurious NGOs AND, being in power, for a fair consideration,it can also rope in Nitish’s JD(U), AIADMK, even Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and Vaiko’s party in dire situations or if it comes to Marathi Manoos, even the Shiv Sena.

In case we forgot, the BJP even played T-20 (Term-20) matches with some of the Congress alliance partners for power. First Mayawati fooled them into a 20-month rule each. When the BJP’s turn came she dumped them. Then they played another T-20 with JD(S) in Karnataka who, after batting, refused to field. Dumped again! The outcome in Karnataka was a BJP victory without any alliances. That’s a first for the party in Southern India.

It doesn’t take a wizard to observe that the BJP in all its alliances where it’s the ruling party, it plays second fiddle. Bihar, Mumbai (Municipality), Punjab. Earlier the alliance with Naveen Patnaik also crumbled and the BJD came to power on its own in Odisha. That makes BJP the suicidal Bridesmaid!

Among its rare long-term allies the Shiv Sena is an out-dated, redundant party and doesn’t even add any value to a national party like BJP. This is what dismays its members and followers. Why does the BJP have any alliance with the SS when it’s not in power in the state or the centre? Foolishness! Despite the bad governance, all the scams and even 26/11, the Congress got a third straight term in Maharashtra in 2009 and is the dominant partner in its alliance with the NCP. Dominant is the key word. The one time BJP came to power in Maharashtra the dominant party was the SS. Since then it has been downhill for BJP in Maharashtra. So why does it still ally with SS in elections? Does it make any sense at all? So, if the BJP wants to assert leadership it has to go it alone in the state in the next election and any alliance with SS or MNS should be on the poll outcomes. Pre-poll alliances with the SS is nothing but suicidal. The SS has no respect from a majority of Maharashtrians and counts for absolutely nothing at the national level and in the rare instances it counts it goes against the BJP. Why play bridesmaid to this insignificant party? At best of times the SS behaves like those Kashmiri youths who store bagful of stones to throw at the slightest incentive at the BJP.

Now, where Bihar is concerned the JDU is now flexing its muscle perhaps because its leader, Nitish Kumar, has his own ambitions. Nothing wrong with that! But why should the BJP again be the victim? Simply because it is once again not the dominant party but the second fiddle. For a national party it’s better to sit in the opposition than to play second fiddle in a coalition. This is a lesson the BJP hasn’t learned from the Congress. It must anticipate that the JDUs and the BJDs are in principle more aligned to the Congress than to the BJP. Both, the JDU and BJD, are welfare-state specialists and are clones of the Congress. Their alliance is based on convenience, power, funds and not on principles. I’m sure this is not lost on BJP either. What kind of national party allows a man to dictate who will campaign in a state, who should be the party’s PM candidate in the future and who keeps defining ‘Secularism’ as frequently as he goes to the toilet every day?

In absence of a clear, unambiguous message to Nitish Kumar the BJP is once again playing the suicidal bride. Voters don’t vote on manifestos, they vote on the confidence and strength a party and its leaders exude, communicate and demonstrate. Tragically, the BJP management hardly seems to realise who represents that confidence, leadership and performance in their party. The other thing they would certainly know is that voters don’t often vote similarly in state and general elections. Congress which was thrashed in UP in 2007 came up with the largest seats for Parliament in 2009. Even Gujarat gives a better deal to the Congress in centre’s elections than in state elections. There is no reason to believe without SS or JDU the BJP wouldn’t score more in Maharashtra and Bihar where they have a much better standing than say a state like Bengal. Whether they declare Narendra Modi a PM candidate or not is hardly important. First they need to demonstrate they are at least a party capable of leading and performing and worth the votes without their sundry allies.

Given the complete disenchantment with the Congress and the UPA’s non-performance, scams and corruption there is absolutely no risk in going it alone in 2014 in states where their current or previous allies are a constant nuisance. Bihar, Maharashtra and Odisha are prime states ready for a solo run for BJP. In Punjab unless they get a majority of seats to contest the BJP must go it alone. In the state, it’s fine to allow SAD the majority but not at the centre. At no cost should they have a pre-poll alliance in these states unless they hold a substantial advantage in terms of seats to contest.

The artful photograph in this post, an imaginary dead woman underwater, is titled ‘Black Lotus’ I have just given it a new name. And the woman does look suicidal. Not much is different with the present BJP and its central leaders. Each time they are called upon to be tough, responsive and combative and to the altar to be the bride – They end up playing the suicidal bridesmaid. The worst part is their spokespersons keep appearing on and giving interviews to Congress alliance channels in the media. What is evident to even a stray observer seems invisible to the BJP.  NDTV, CNN-IBN, ABPNews have sworn their allegiance to the Congress. Some channels are even predominantly anti-Hindu. Just as they should take strong positions with their state-based allies they need to take a strong stand with the corrupt media as well. If they are truly a national party then it’s time to assert their leadership.

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