The UP Overkill Caution

Sometimes, the most adverse situations in life spark the most desperate act of daring. In the movie “Ransom” Mel Gibson’s son is kidnapped. Two attempts at paying ransom fail. In a chilling twist, Gibson decides that he will not pay the ransom any more. Instead, he doubles the ransom amount to a bounty on the kidnapper’s head (Video: 1.51 mins):

Gibson promises the kidnapper he will never see one dollar of the money. Kidnappers and blackmailers are among the worst criminals on earth because they hold the lives of others as a negotiating tool and in danger. The gang of alleged farmers held the whole NCR to ransom and blackmailed the GOI for over a year. Lacking the courage to nip the criminals in the bud, PM Narendra Modi just folded up. Not only did he withdraw the farm laws without any pre-conditions but he also withdrew all criminal cases for the violence and damage caused. Stubble burning cases and laws were also dropped.

And Modi did all this on “Guru Purab” as he called it on November 19. As if Sikhs are the only farmers in this land. But this action wasn’t for Punjab votes as many argue. This cowardice is for UP votes. After the severe Bengal slap, Modi and BJP are damn scared about losing elections. They are reduced from 21 states around 2017-18 to about a dozen currently. Of course, UP must be won at all costs and it is the lifeline to LS2024 and a lot of electoral-pride is also at stake. Modi has been hectic in his activity in UP with unending project launches and the Kashi Corridor opening and a dip in the Ganga. I guess it was time for him to become a Hindu for a few months:

If that wasn’t enough, Modi has announced over 1 lakh crores worth of projects in UP and a few in Uttarakhand and Himachal. All 3 states are heavily dependent on the Hindu vote while Muslims have a chunk in some regions in UP. A day ago, a team led by Dharmendra Pradhan was also set to woo Brahmins in UP. The same Brahmins that Ambedkariyas of BJP abuse all year and have more or less wiped out of education system due to Reservation. All these are not signs of confidence. All these are signs of FEAR. As with Bengal where they rushed a lot of ministers to campaign, the BJP assembled all their CMs for a big show of strength in Varanasi and Ayodhya. They did an overkill in Bengal and they are about to do an overkill in UP too:

In another meeting, Amit Shah, the most incompetent of ministers in the Modi Cabinet, yet again screamed BJP will win 300+ in UP. The guy doesn’t learn any lessons. In 2017, he bragged BJP will get 150 in Gujarat. They barely managed to cling to a majority and got 99. In Bengal he bragged BJP would get 200, they ended up with 75. However, why so much overkill with the shows and razzmatazz in a Covid-ridden campaign? Because the opinion polls are showing a steady decline in seats for the BJP in UP:

The ABP poll is not the only one showing a decline in seats. Timesnow polls showed a decline too. I am sure BJP too must have an internal group doing their own surveys. Opinion polls cannot be accurate but there is always a “natural anti-incumbency” for every ruling party. It may be in a loss or reduced seats. The BJP got 71 LS seats from UP in 2014 but were reduced to around 62 in 2019. And the excessive chest-thumping and overkill is being caused by a sense of fear of losing or a heavily reduced number of seats. There is a reason Modi and BJP have lost over 10 states in the last four years. Even as you brag about your achievements, there has to be a touch of modesty. Modi blundered with his “Didi-O-Didi” taunts in Bengal. In Bengal too, the media and BJP footsies behaved as if the BJP is the only party contesting. They are doing the same in UP.

One hopes for Yogi’s sake that BJP campaigners bring back some modesty in their speeches. It is a psychological fact that people are repulsed by overkill. BJP lost Bengal partly because of an overkill and partly for sucking up to Muslims and Mujibur. Modi should recall his grandiose announcements in Bihar 2015. He asked the crowds how much they wanted as doles and finally promised 1.25 lakh crores as if he is some great emperor showering crumbs on his subjects. And for all those grand announcements the BJP alliance lost Bihar in 2015:

On December 25, BJP ministers and senior members celebrated Christmas with a begging bowl. Suddenly, all of them were seeking donations from the general public. I wonder why the biggest political party with maximum corporate funding and electoral bonds sale would resort to such beggary:

BJP received 76% of all Trust donations in 2019-20. The BJP received 276 crs, Congress 58 crores, SP 2 crores and all others 23 crores. The highest donations for BJP came from a Trust group of Airtel, Adil Infra and DLF. In case of Electoral Bonds too the BJP got 75% of the total collections. Hindustan Times reports from EC data: “The BJP… ₹2,555 crore-- via electoral bonds. This was up from ₹1,450 crore it received the previous year. The BJP’s cash flow, according to its audit report filed with the ECI, remains the highest among political parties at ₹3,501 crore, up from ₹1,904 in 2018-2019”.

That was for 2019-20. During the Covid-hit 2020-21 many pharma and vaccine companies would have made hefty donations. So, this begging for donations from public is NOT really a pauper seeking money. It is essentially to judge the public mood and response. The BJP is in fear of voters’ minds and doesn’t want another shock like Bengal. Thus, these donation-tricks used as public surveys expressed by money through action.

Whatever fears BJP has manifests in different ways. Firstly, Modi covers up all the failures of his govt with flashy, razzmatazz shows like I said before. Lipstick is the most powerful tool of Modi. Secondly, Yogi certainly has a strong standing as a better Hindu mascot than Modi. In May this year, Morning Consult, the same agency that gives top ratings to Modi among international Heads of govts showed a fall in his popularity within India:

Modi’s “Mann Ki Baat” once used to be eagerly awaited and trended on SM. Now it neither trends nor anybody from public bothers to comment on what he said. There is a fatigue to everything. In August 2021, India Today Mood of the Nation poll also showed a dip in Modi’s domestic popularity. India faces serious economy-problems and unemployment. Modi is fishing here and there for money to feed the beggars of this country. GST rates on some products will go up from January 2022. Ostentatious drama with Kashi or Ayodhya and excessive theatre is an overkill. The BJP and Modi would do well to remember the overkill in Bengal and show some modest caution.

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