A war or a national
calamity is always a Godsend for a PM and political party when the going is not
so great. AB Vajpayee lost the
confidence vote in April 1999 and was the caretaker PM. The elections in
six-months (held in September-October 1999) could have gone many ways. Then Kargil happened in May and the victory
over Pakistan dramatically improved ABV’s and BJP’s prospects and he was voted
back as PM more convincingly. People
forget all other issues when the country is faced with an enemy. Towards
the fag end of the PM Modi’s first term, the economy wasn’t doing all that
great and there were many other problems. And then Pulwama happened and the retaliation at Balakot in Pakistan. The Balakot bombing was like thumping our
chest with pride and throughout the 2019 election campaign, Modi kept shouting
“Un ko ghar
pe ghoos ke maara”. That and other accomplishments gave another
thumping majority to Modi and BJP.
The start to the second
term of Modi was sober and, often, lackluster. Come August, 370 was junked and that gave ModiSarkar
a boost. Although, junking 370 doesn’t make any difference to anyone
individually, it does re-align JK with India and makes big political changes. A
couple of months later, the CAA gave
Hindu refugees (till 2014) from Afpak and Bangladesh the right to citizenship
in India. This resulted in some bogus riots and protests ending in communal violence
in Delhi. There wasn’t much cheer on the economy front for ModiSarkar but the
visit of US President Donald Trump
in February kept spirits going and some level of public revelry. The Delhi
violence started after Trump left and the Shaheen
Bagh blockade had shown Amit Shah
and ModiSarkar as incompetent and inept.
In the face of all this
comes the Corona epidemic which is
declared a worldwide pandemic and another national crisis, another “War” as Modi called it to fight
against. For a govt facing a minor
economic crisis and multiple problems Corona was a Godsend. Though India
was dealing with Corona from sometime in February, Modi himself got more
serious about only in the first week of March or thereabouts:
Given that the Chinese
Virus was new, suddenly posing a threat and little was known about it, the
initial response to it is understandable. Nobody in the world was prepared for
it and China and WHO misled everyone. ModiSarkar too was a bit slow in
responding but that is reasonable under the circumstances. The first Corona
death in India happened around March 13 and things got a bit more serious. But
it wasn’t until March 20 that Modi addressed the nation and persuaded everyone
to follow a “Janta Curfew” on
Sunday, March 22. Though citizens diligently followed his advice, some panic
had already set in and people had started hoarding some items from the market.
Then, on March 23rd night, all flights were grounded. And on March
24, Modi made yet another national address announcing a 21-day complete
national lockdown till April 14.
This first full lockdown
was not very well thought out and seemed announced more in panic and fear. PM
Modi kept advising everyone not to panic, not to fear but to take precautions
but once again some migrants were running helter skelter in a few days, Muslims
in ghettos and mosques didn’t want to follow the lockdown, and the state govts
and police were also not fully geared to handle the sudden blockade. Everyone was “adjusting” slowly. But
still, no harm done. But what did the govt learn in the 21 days of lockdown?
Nobody knows. In some states, the Covid cases and deaths went up and in some states
they went down. Then the explosion in cases because of Tablighis happened. And after the lockdown was further extended
till May 3, some places had the same mass violations and more so in view of Ramzan:
This post will stick to the
issue of lockdown and extension and deal with the mass defiance of lockdown by
Muslims in another post as both the issues are separate. Modi likes drama, he likes the “shock and awe” method of doing things
even when not everything is like demonetisation. The grounding of flights with
many people stranded all over with a 24-hour notice was imprudent when a total
lockdown was not called in yet. When the total lockdown was called for, that
too was suddenly from midnight of the same evening of announcement without any
thought to people still in transit or stuck at various places. The virus was not such a danger that
everyone was immediately under a nuclear attack as Modi made out to be. It
is almost two months since we have been seriously dealing with Corona – cases,
treatments, deaths, medical supplies, violence against health workers, idiotic
violations – all of it. Here is what the Covid stats looked like two days ago:
The cases are steadily
growing and more so in specific parts in India. The figures in the image above
are for April 27 morning. Since this keeps changing every minute, I would
suggest you check the latest figures while or after you read this. As the number
grows in India, the recovery rate also seems to be growing. Though the number
of deaths is also growing, and unfortunately so, it is still around the 3% plus
mark against the total cases. However, if you view it against the total Indian
population, the number of deaths would appear to be almost negligible. Therefore, extremes like draw a “Lakshman
Rekha” and “Don’t go out” and “Don’t let anyone in” are not called for anymore
and that level of fearmongering can be clearly avoided. There are regions in
India that are less affected and some cities are more affected by Covid. No particular state is that widely affected
(except maybe Maharashtra) so as to warrant a 100% lockdown. There are
certain districts and cities that are “Red
hotspots” and among the top cities affected the most are:
Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad,
Indore, Pune, Jaipur, Thane, Chennai, Hyderabad and Agra. Of course, Kolkata is
also affected but is missing from the list as it seems real numbers are not
coming out from Bengal.
Even in some of these
cities, it is clear that “some specific” suburbs and ghettos are badly affected
and not the whole city as such. If Jaipur has Ramganj, Ahmedabad has its
Eastern part only, Mumbai has Dharavi, Govandi and such places. All of these Red zones have some intimacy
with Tablighi Jamaat whose members have been floating around the country.
Lives of millions are now damaged. Most of these millions are daily wagers who
are left in the lurch with no work and no wages. Although govt claims doles
being made, that would hardly be a solution for an extended lockdown.
The initial lockdown may be
justified and everyone needs to support the govt and the PM without any
reservation. But now we are about to near the end of the second lockdown and there is no justification by numbers or the
nature of the enemy for so much fear to exist and for people to be jailed
in their homes. As many doctors are pointing out, the simple rule of a quarantine is – to quarantine the sick people, not
to jail the healthy people. Many doctors also claim that the more people
are locked, the more they are likely it is to weaken their immune system. The
stats on international standing on the Corona impact also shows India has been
safer and luckier than many of the Western countries:
In the video conference
with CMs on April 27, Modi wanted to know if there should be further extension
of lockdowns or if they have had enough. A few CMs wanted an extension, some
wanted a dole-package and others had no clue as usual. Finally, it does dawn
upon Modi, that any further extension of this lockdown can seriously harm the
economy and livelihood of people. Currently, polls show he has the approval of
93% people in the manner he has handled the Corona challenge. This may dwindle
quickly if reparations aren’t undertaken quickly. The statistics in India do not suggest that a national lockdown or a
full-fledged extension is justified in any manner whatsoever.
PM Modi now wants Indians
to woo firms that exit China – I wonder if that advice is for the corporate
sector or for the govt Babus to target such firms. So far, companies exiting
China have shown greater preference for Vietnam
and Taiwan. There is nothing – no
lure, no incentive and no motivation for any company to move to India. Japan
has announced a $2 bn incentive for their companies to return to Japan. Commie
policies of ModiSarkar have ensured that India is again an unattractive place
for investments. FDI is not in great shape and nor is the manufacturing sector.
“Make in India” slogan is all but dead.
This is the reality that Modi must wake up to. When shops and businesses come
out of lockdown it will take them anywhere between 1 to 3 months to return to
full strength and productive work. Most shops that have been closed and have
perishable goods will have to throw it all away and clean up. Malls may have to
be fumigated as they are favourites for rats and other pests. Even postal
services, rail services and air services will take a few weeks to return to
normal. So, it is not just recovering
from the lockdown but return to “normalcy” that will already cost another month
or more. Therefore, no further total lockdowns are justified.
Life after Covid will be
very different for a long time. There will be a new normal. People must walk
around in masks, protect themselves, Public transport must be frequently
disinfected. Gloves must be frequently change, they are not permanent all-day
protectors. Public places and hospitals will have to be sanitized every single
day. Schools have to find new ways of seating children. Sporting events will
have to wait at least another year before stadiums can be filled again.
Doctors, nurses, health workers, security forces must be given special medical
check-ups so that they return to full healthy service. How people will be accommodated in trains and planes is another
challenge for the transport system as “Social distancing” will now be a long-term
exercise. All these are challenges and people and govts must face them
under the new normal without any more lockdowns.
Life cannot come to a
standstill. Even otherwise, every time a person goes out, there are attendant
risks – known and unknown. Covid is now at
least a known risk. People will be mature enough to deal with it and govts
too should mature. The Lockdown must be restricted only to the “Red hotspots”
and a majority of India must slowly return to normalcy.
