Fear and uncertainty – these are the two biggest tools for politicians to keep a vast
population under control. “Don’t cross that Lakshman Rekha”… “Don’t allow
anyone in” … “Get the Arogya App”.
And add to it the trick of scheduling a speech at 8pm or if it’s late, then
schedule it for 9am the next morning. All this does is to increase
anticipation, anxiety and endless discussions on what will Modi say, what is
this about, is there more lockdowns or is there some relief or is there an
attack on PoK? All these questions start getting thrown around, some even in
fun and entertainment. To fuel the uncertainties and fears, many “experts” form
all sorts of mindless theories to project the calamity that awaits us and that
the sky will indeed fall on our heads and therefore we must wear a skullcap:
At the time of writing
there are some 1.07 lakh total Covid cases in India and 3000+ deaths. The beauty of being wrong in our wild
projections is that there is no punishment for it. You can project any
number in anything with any kind of reasoning behind it and can peddle it.
There is no legal liability to it, unless you force someone to base purchases
on it. There is no legal liability for fake poll promises or changing prepoll
alliances either. For instance, fake TRP
numbers can be punishable because the advertising industry and media uses TRP
numbers to quote ad rates. Unscientific TRP numbers can invite legal action. Most
of our decisions are not based on analysis but on gut feeling, past experience
and instant experience. We
understand what “past experience” is. What is “instant experience”? We all go
through instant experience of something almost every day as PM Narendra Modi discovered.
In December 2019, Modi was
in Kanpur to take stock of the progress in the Namami Gange project. It is a major project to clean up the Ganga
and is well intentioned. The Atal Ghat project in Kanpur was executed by the
govt=owned Engineers India Limited. This is an age-old company with vast
experience in public projects and they are the ones who constructed the Atal
Ghat that Modi visited. But while climbing back up the steps from the ghat,
Modi slipped and fell. Nothing unusual, we have all slipped and fallen a dozen
times at dozens of places and on many a staircase. But a PM slipping and
falling at the steps thrilled his detractors and they were happy at the silly
incident. That incident was over and we all forgot about it. But no one ever
looked back and investigated why the PM slipped and fell. Was it just an
accident, was it just a mis-step or was there something else? We will find out
that this is how “instant experience” deceives us when it takes an unscheduled
change or turn and causes problems.
The Corona epidemic is one such unscheduled turn that had everyone
deceived. Health workers and security providers are struggling to save people
and keep order in society. After almost two months of lockdowns, the GOI is now
looking to reopen businesses and restore normalcy of life and economic
activity. After a couple rounds of “financial relief” measures by RBI and GOI
another big round of packages was released by GOI. This is worth 20 lakh crores. However, some part of this package
may work and most of it may not work. To start with, the GOI doesn’t know what
the nature or size of the problem is. Almost all of its package, excluding the
cash doles to some poor sections, is based on estimations and opinions of a
few. During the lockdown, there has been a huge fall in supply and demand of
most goods and services as they were simply absent. This image below is a
snapshot of the package 5lakh crores for the MSME sector that the govt hopes to
re-energise:
This is akin to the belief that if the body is badly damaged and
inflicted with illness, throwing all the money you can will repair it. It
doesn’t really work that way. I have mentioned in my previous posts and I do so
again, PM Modi has zero clue on the Covid thing or how to handle the extended
lockdowns. The first one was fine – because of fear and uncertainty. After
that, Modi was the one spreading fear and panic. And it wasn’t Indian economy
or re-energising it that matters so much to him but getting accolades from
foreign govts and diplomats that matters more to him. It’s not just me, even
his ardent fans like Minhaz Merchant have acknowledged this poor craving for
recognition by Modi that drives his decisions rather than sound
logic.
Taking the MSME example, most of the loans are meant for those who
already have loans or outstanding loans. Within an industry, most players are
likely to face problems of the same nature. In the case of goods, the biggest
problem right now is “demand”. In such a situation, the govt has redefined the MSME and its financial upper
limits. The new upper limits would serve new businesses but not the
existing ones. There is an uneven handling of operators within the same
industry. The MSME package is targeted at 45 lakh operators whereas the total
number of MSMEs are around 6-7 crores. One has to wonder what happens to the
rest. Will they perish or have to survive on their own? Given that the highest
employment in India is in the unorganized sector, the death of crores of MSME
units not within the targeted 45 lakhs will cause more unemployment:
Most people backed Modi in
his lockdown announcements. In the fourth lockdown situation it has been left
totally to the states to decide which areas need a lockdown. This should have
been down from the second lockdown itself. But Modi wanted to play the “Superman” and single-hero role and
didn’t delegate to the states. Consequently, states had all kinds of problems
with floating labour, rioters and “Thookiyas” running helter-skelter. The 20-lakh
crore package is huge but it has still not created the kind of excitement it
should have created. This is mainly because many are still understanding the
nitty gritty of the offering. Some feel more should have been offered. But in
reality, the lockdown has been like an earthquake. Some damage is visible but
most damage is not instantly visible. The “instant experience” of an earthquake
doesn’t show all the damage it causes overall:
Each time PM Modi talks
about some grand economic plan there is a lot of hollow ring to it. At the start of this second term he
blabbered about a 5 trillion economy. While the ambition is welcome, he had
zero clue on how and what will get us there other than pipe dreams. He also
claims India has demographic dividend. This is a falsehood he lives in that
will cost India heavily. A big chunk of this demography is absolutely useless,
unproductive lot. Tall talk of Vishwa Guru, Vasudeva Kutumbam are all nonsensical
bhashans uncalled for in a pure economic plan. So-called “structure” if Indian
economy is sound, they always claim. But the structure does need a review
frequently as do the steps of Atal Ghat that Modi fell on.
Instant experience when you
climb the stairs of any building. Your feet quickly adjust to the height and
interval of the stairs. And after initial slow climbing, many people can
blindly climb up fast without looking at the stairs because their feet have adjusted
to the experience. Now, look at the steps of Atal Ghat. They are absolutely idiotic construction to say the least. The
steps are of different heights at different levels as I have marked and shown. God is in the details. It is natural
anyone who climbs them at the same speed could fall as the height and intervals
are not the same. The Covid Lockdown too gives us all an uneven experience with
lots of uncertainties. ModiSarkar would have been prudent if they had looked
back at the construction of Atal Ghat just as they should completely review the
structure of Indian economy.
